As we know, there are two main ways to win a pot in poker: by having the strongest hand and taking the chips at showdown, or by making your opponent fold and winning the pot before the showdown. The second method is great because you can bluff – meaning you don’t need a strong hand to win. But not every player will fold their strong hand to your raise. This is where understanding fold equity becomes crucial.
What is Fold Equity?
In poker, fold equity refers to the probability that your opponent will fold to your raise. It’s often abbreviated as FE in poker software and among players.
In our article about equity in poker, we talked about calculating the chances of winning the current hand. But in that case, we only considered the strength of our hand at showdown. We focused on whether we should call our opponent’s bet, considering the size of the pot. With fold equity, we approach it differently – we’re deciding whether it’s worth raising with a weaker hand, hoping our opponent folds. Therefore, FE is primarily used when bluffing or semi-bluffing.
Fold Equity in Semi-Bluffing
In this section, we’ll explain how to calculate fold equity when you’re semi-bluffing. A semi-bluff is when you bet with an incomplete hand (like a straight draw or a flush draw), hoping your opponent will fold, or if they call, you’ll hit the needed card to complete your winning hand.
Why is Raising Better than Calling in a Semi-Bluff:
- If you call with an incomplete draw and face a second barrel on the next street, you’ll likely have to fold. But by raising, you might make your opponent fold, allowing you to win the pot immediately.
- If your opponent 3-bets, they probably have a very strong hand. This is a clear signal to fold. If you had just called and they bet again on the next street, it could just be a continuation bet.
- By raising on the flop and getting a call, you might get a free card on the turn if your opponent checks.
- By making a bet, your expected value (EV) increases. For example, with a flush draw, you’ll complete it about 1 in 3 times. However, because your opponent will fold sometimes, your overall EV will rise.
- Increasing the pot: By making a continuation bet and getting a call, you significantly increase the pot size. If you then hit your draw on the turn, your opponent may call again, thinking they have the best hand.
How Will Your Opponent React to a Semi-Bluff Raise?
You won’t often face a 3-bet from your opponent after a semi-bluff raise. Usually, they’ll either call or fold. This is especially true at lower stakes, where players almost never 3-bet as a bluff on the flop. So, if you do face a 3-bet, it’s more likely to be for value, signaling that you should fold.
Calculating Profitability
Let’s calculate how often your opponent needs to fold for your raise to be profitable in the long run. We can use the following fold equity formula:
Fold Equity Formula: Raise size / (Pot size + Raise size)
For example, if the pot is $10, your opponent bets $5, and you raise to $15 to try to win the $15 pot, your opponent needs to fold at least 50% of the time for you to break even. In other words, you’re risking an amount equal to your potential profit if your opponent folds half the time or more.
If you have a draw hand, like a flush draw, you can also factor in the equity of hitting your draw. For example, with a 35% chance of completing your flush, you are only risking 65% of your raise amount. So, the fold equity formula slightly adjusts:
Adjusted Formula: (Raise size) * (1 – equity) / (Pot size + Raise size * (1 – equity))
If your equity is 35%, your opponent needs to fold:
(15 * 0.65) / (15 + 15 * 0.65) = 39%
So, with equity, you need fewer folds from your opponent to make your raise profitable than you would with a pure bluff.
Fold Equity Facts:
- In the previous example, with a flush draw, your opponent only needs to fold 39% of the time for you to profit, compared to 50% without a draw.
- Most players fold 39% or more of the time to a raise. They’ll often c-bet with overcards (like Ax, Kx, or Qx) or with smaller pocket pairs, and those hands will fold to your raise.
- While you can’t calculate fold equity exactly, it’s important to know that having even some equity (like a gutshot or an overcard) significantly improves your EV when bluffing.
Example Hand and Fold Equity Calculation
Let’s play a hand in a 6-max table with $1/$2 stakes. Hero’s stack is $217, and he’s on the button.
Preflop: Hero: 6h4h
Everyone folds, and Hero open-raises to $6. The Big Blind (BB) calls.
Flop: 9d3d2h Pot: $13
Now, we have the potential for a straight (gutshot) and a flush (backdoor flush draw). So, it makes sense to make a continuation bet after BB checks. We bet $8, and BB calls.
Turn: 10h Pot: $29
This card increases our equity because we now have a flush draw. What hands can our opponent be playing this way? We’ll likely get a call from hands like 77 or a high pair. With a set or two pair, they would raise. So, we’re likely ahead against the hands in their range if we hit our draw.
How do we calculate fold equity if we want to bet $22 into this pot? Using the formula, if we had no equity, our opponent would need to fold 43% of the time for us to make a profit: (22 / (29 + 22)).
However, with our equity, we need fewer folds from our opponent to be profitable.
BB checks, we bet $22, and BB calls.
River: 7h Pot: $73
Our flush hits, and we make another bet of $56, which our opponent calls. They show 10d7d – two pair.
However, if we hadn’t hit our card on the river, we shouldn’t have continued betting. After calling on the flop and turn, they might call again on the river.
So, fold equity helps us determine when a raise will be profitable, and when we’ll lose over the long term. Remember, having any equity allows us to semi-bluff with fewer folds needed from our opponent.
